Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?

[Luke_Wilbur]

Hugo Chávez’s radical course and increasingly autocratic Bolivarian revolution are under growing pressure from former supporters alienated by government mismanagement, food shortages, inflation, public insecurity and corruption.

 

Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?*, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, says there is mounting resistance to Chávez’s push to merge his coalition’s parties into a new United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), and concern about his foreign policy and further concentration of power in the president’s hands. If he fails to compromise and govern more transparently and inclusively, November municipal and regional elections could repeat the dramatic political setback Chávez suffered when his sweeping constitutional reform was defeated in a referendum last December.

 

“The pro-Chávez movement is losing momentum. It has become bureaucratic, corruption is rampant, and the government’s capacity to manage the country is poor”, says Mauricio Angel Morales, Crisis Group’s Andean region Senior Analyst. “Regional and local grassroots are increasingly disappointed by the top-down style of the new PSUV party, which also is under mounting pressure from the smaller chavista groups”.

 

Many Venezuelans are dissatisfied with Chávez’s foreign policy. Massive arms deals, generous cooperation with allies and intrusive diplomacy throughout Latin America, including support for radical armed groups such as the Colombian FARC, risk isolating the country internationally.

 

Since his landslide second re-election in December 2006, Chávez has sought to accelerate implementation of his “socialism of the XXIst century”. The government-controlled National Assembly passed an “enabling law” (ley habilitante), which grants him full legislative powers until the end of July, and he proposed sweeping reform of the 1999 constitution. Had it been approved in the referendum, the latter would have removed limitations on presidential re-election as well as paved the way for centralised education; further politicisation of the military; recentralisation of government through a new territorial and political order; and strengthening of communal councils charged with administering the executive-led social welfare programs (misiones).

 

“It is time for Chávez to change his radical course, regain the trust of a good part of his movement’s former social base, seek compromise with the democratic opposition and govern far more efficiently”, says Markus Schultze-Kraft, Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director. “Only by ending attempts to drastically alter the 1999 constitution is Chávez likely to return Venezuela to democratic stability”.

[Guest human_*]

No chance that it will happen. In Latin America "You can still buy Politicians". Chavez knows that the Republicans see him as a threat to regional stability, and the Democrats used him just to make my group "Republicans" look bad.

 

And he has oil.

 

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“It is time for Chávez to change his radical course, regain the trust of a good part of his movement’s former social base, seek compromise with the democratic opposition and govern far more efficiently”, says Markus Schultze-Kraft, Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director. “Only by ending attempts to drastically alter the 1999 constitution is Chávez likely to return Venezuela to democratic stability”.