Chavez is ARMING

[Human]

IT'S GETTING WORSE IN lATIN AMERICA

 

 

 

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http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/...T4.1a77e44.html

 

Richard Norton: Chavez with subs could play with fire

 

08:00 AM EDT on Wednesday, June 20, 2007

 

RICHARD J. NORTON

 

HUGO CHAVEZ is a man who loves to portray himself as standing up to the United States. According to the Venezuelan president, he is St. George, and the United States is the dangerous dragon. At the same time, President Chavez says he is the champion of Venezuela’s poor, the heir apparent of Fidel Castro’s mantle of revolutionary leadership, and South America’s new Simon Bolivar.

 

A showman but not a buffoon, Chavez understands the benefit he may gain from seizing the image of the moment, whether standing in solidarity with Bolivia’s Evo Morales, or hurling insults at President Bush from the podium in the U.N. General Assembly. He often seems to do such things with the explicit hope that U.S. leaders will respond in kind.

 

The Bush administration clearly understands this and has commendably refused to be drawn into a pointless exchange of mudslinging. Washington knows it takes two to make an argument and an argument is exactly what Chavez hopes to provoke.

 

In addition to preserving the diplomatic high ground, the U.S. restraint should be seen as reassuring to our South American partners and has the additional benefit of undoubtedly frustrating President Chavez, while making him look less than statesmanlike.

 

However, Hugo Chavez’s recent announcement that Venezuela will purchase five Kilo-class 636-type diesel submarines and four Amur-class 677E diesel submarines from Russia is a provocation that should not be dismissed. These weapons systems are destabilizing and other regional powers will not be able to ignore the improved submarine capability Venezuela will possess if this deal is completed.

 

The result could be the classic outcome of many security dilemmas. The state that sets out to improve its security — in this case, Venezuela — may well be the one to suffer most.

 

The 636 Kilo and the 677E Amur are among the most sophisticated and quiet diesel submarines in the world, which makes them very difficult to detect. According to open sources, they possess short-range surface-to-air missiles for use when surfaced, and carry up to 18 torpedoes or 24 mines. They can travel at up to 20 knots when submerged and 11 knots on the surface, with a range as great as 7,500 miles.

 

This will allow these future Venezuelan submarines to travel south to Montevideo or north to Halifax and return without refueling. The entire Caribbean will be open to them — from U.S. ports on the Gulf Coast to Mexico’s east coast to the Dutch-owned islands of the Lesser Antilles.

 

Hugo Chavez says he needs these vessels for defense and to defeat a potential U.S. blockade of his country. However, Venezuela already possesses two diesel submarines that could make a significant contribution to the defense of the country.

 

The truth is that the Russian submarines will be as easy to use in an attack as in a defensive role. Their presence in the Caribbean could provoke a regional arms race, as other countries, including Colombia and the United States, could respond with increased military capacity in the region. These submarines are also likely to raise global economic concerns as Venezuela will now have the capacity to disrupt the flow of goods through the Panama Canal.

 

South American planners from Mexico City to Buenos Aires will have no difficulty in ascertaining the security ramifications of Chavez’s new military hardware. They are likely to tell their political leaders that, while Hugo’s subs would be hard to kill at sea, they would be relatively easy to detect and destroy in port. Far from protecting Venezuela, the new submarines might increase the chance of a pre-emptive attack should Venezuela enter into hostilities with another state.

 

And, while not playing down the challenges involved in detecting and destroying quiet diesel submarines, it is fair to say the United States is more likely to be successful at this task than any other country. It is also important to remember that having an expensive and capable weapons system does not mean a country will have the required repair facilities or a sufficient number of trained personnel to make it work correctly in the years to come.

 

The immediate response to Chavez’s submarine purchase is more likely to be political than military. South American leaders will undoubtedly ask themselves if this purchase is in the region’s collective best interest. They are bound to explore the ramifications to their economies if Venezuela begins to increase military tensions off its coasts.

 

One of the reasons South America has enjoyed increasing prosperity and peace is because leaders have refrained from such provocative acts. It would not be surprising to see Presidents Kirchner of Argentina, Bachelet of Chile, Lula of Brazil, Calderon of Mexico and Uribe of Colombia make this an issue for action by the Organization of American States. Washington may well find letting these capable leaders take the initiative is the best way to handle the situation for now.

 

This purchase is going to cost Venezuela a great deal of money. Similar sales to China suggest that the nine submarines could cost Venezuela more than $2.5 billion. If President Chavez truly cared about protecting his people from danger, using those dollars for better education, increased medical attention and better transportation would seem to offer far greater payoffs than submarines that are likely to weaken the security they were supposed to improve.

 

Richard J. Norton is a professor of national- security affairs at the Naval War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the War College, the Navy, the Defense Department, or any other part of the U.S. government.

[Luke_Wilbur]

"Admiralty Shipyards" specializes in underwater ship building. To date the company has built 298 submarines (of them 41 atomic).

 

At present on FGUP "admiralty shipyards" on the project TSKB MT. "RUBY" is conducted the building of the neatomnoy submarine of generation "AMUR -1650", intended for the delivery for the export. Admirality Shipyards has improved in the tactical design of the neatomnykh submarines of the previous generation. As a result OF PL "AMUR -1650" acquired the ability to deliver salvo rocket impacts on surface targets both single, and group.

 

 

 

Furthermore:

 

There is a reduced the level of the acoustic field of ship, (in comparison with PL of the previous generations - several times);

The sub has a new generation of radio-electronic armament;

The sub has automated combat and technical equipment;

The inertial navigation complex, which makes it possible to ensure safety of navigation and determination of the parameters of motion with necessary for using the rocket weapon by accuracy, is established, being located long time under water;

A fully variable propulsion motor of new development is established;

storage battery with the increased period of service is established.

In the process of building the new forms of productions and the technological processes were mastered:

 

section on the production of nonpenetrating sliding and lift- mast devices is equipped;

is developed and mastered the technology of the installation of the highly sensitive hydrophone antenna of hydroacoustic complex "LIRA";

A new generation of antisonar coating "Molniya";

 

The company is located at:

 

190121, Saint Petersburg, observer r. of fontanki, 203,

the bodies: +7 (812) 714-8863, the fax: +7 (812) 571-1371, e-mail: info@ashipyards.com

[Human]

And this is the part of the internet that SCARES me the most "Luke". With more and more weapons manufactures coming online, the greater need for security protocols need to be in place.

 

Even the slightest bit of information on weapons tech CAN BE researched online "since most folks like to show off on just how good they are". <groan>

 

Now the scary part "other than the Government not really knowing what's out there?" is that Other countries are getting better at surffing the invisible net.

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"Admiralty Shipyards" specializes in underwater ship building. To date the company has built 298 submarines (of them 41 atomic).

 

At present on FGUP "admiralty shipyards" on the project TSKB MT. "RUBY" is conducted the building of the neatomnoy submarine of generation "AMUR -1650", intended for the delivery for the export. Admirality Shipyards has improved in the tactical design of the neatomnykh submarines of the previous generation. As a result OF PL "AMUR -1650" acquired the ability to deliver salvo rocket impacts on surface targets both single, and group.

Furthermore:

 

There is a reduced the level of the acoustic field of ship, (in comparison with PL of the previous generations - several times);

The sub has a new generation of radio-electronic armament;

The sub has automated combat and technical equipment;

The inertial navigation complex, which makes it possible to ensure safety of navigation and determination of the parameters of motion with necessary for using the rocket weapon by accuracy, is established, being located long time under water;

A fully variable propulsion motor of new development is established;

storage battery with the increased period of service is established.

In the process of building the new forms of productions and the technological processes were mastered:

 

section on the production of nonpenetrating sliding and lift- mast devices is equipped;

is developed and mastered the technology of the installation of the highly sensitive hydrophone antenna of hydroacoustic complex "LIRA";

A new generation of antisonar coating "Molniya";

 

The company is located at:

 

190121, Saint Petersburg, observer r. of fontanki, 203,

the bodies: +7 (812) 714-8863, the fax: +7 (812) 571-1371, e-mail: info@ashipyards.com